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舒尼替尼和索拉非尼序贯治疗转移性肾细胞癌 的成本效果分析

张心科,吴晶,马爱霞   

  1. 中国药科大学国际医药商学院,天津大学药物科学与技术学院,中国药科大学国际医药商学院
  • 收稿日期:2013-04-24 修回日期:2013-04-24 出版日期:2013-06-25 发布日期:2013-06-24

Cost-Effectiveness of Sequential therapies of Sunitinib and Sorafenib in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

  1. China Pharmaceutical University,Tianjin University,
  • Received:2013-04-24 Revised:2013-04-24 Online:2013-06-25 Published:2013-06-24

摘要: 目的:评价舒尼替尼(sunitinib)和索拉非尼(sorafenib)对转移性肾细胞癌的两种不同序贯治疗方案即舒尼替尼一线治疗结合索拉非尼二线治疗(SUSO组)相对于索拉非尼一线治疗结合舒尼替尼二线治疗(SOSU组)的经济性。方法:本研究通过建立Markov模型评价两种方案的成本效果。主要终点指标包括无进展生命年(progression-free survival,PFS),总生命年(overall survival,OS)以及质量调整生命年(quality-adjusted life years,QALYs)。模型周期为6周,基线分析时间跨度设为5年,折现率设为3%。模型稳定性通过概率敏感性分析和单因素敏感性分析来检验。结果:5年模拟结果显示,SUSO组比SOSU组多获得0.3QALYs,0.34 OS以及0.56 PFS,SUSO组显著延长了OS和PFS,但成本高出132,243元。增量成本效果比显示QALY的ICER为437,870元,基本不具备经济性。但敏感性分析表明SUSO组在短期治疗上比SOSU组带来更长的PFS的同时也具备经济性。结论:除非人均GDP约达到13,700美元,舒尼替尼一线治疗结合索拉非尼二线治疗在5年期治疗上相比索拉非尼一线治疗结合舒尼替尼二线治疗不具备经济性。但是,舒尼替尼一线治疗在短期治疗上具备明显优势,从经济型角度出发,应当考虑除索拉非尼以外的其他药物作为二线治疗的药物。

Abstract: Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of two different sequential therapies of sunitinib and sorafenib in the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma. Methods: A Markov model was developed to simulate the disease progression and change in the treatments from a Chinese health care system and a 5-year time horizon was performed. The circle of the model was 6-week and the discount rate was set to be 3% in base scenario. Outcomes included costs, quality-adjusted life years(QALYs), progression-free life years(PFS) and overall survival(OS) life years. Model parameters were derived from published literature and cost survey data. Robustness was tested using probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. Results: Treatment of sunitinib as first line therapy plus sorafenib as second line therapy (SUSO) was associated with a gain in progression free life years of 0.56 and life years of 0.34 over sorafenib as first line therapy plus sunitinib as second line therapy (SOSU). Also, SUSO had more QALYs gained compared to SOSU (1.48 vs. 1.17), but at higher cost (438,383 Yuan vs. 306,240 Yuan). This resulted in an ICER of 437,870 Yuan. However, one-way sensitivity analysis showed that SUSO is cost effective when the time horizon is within 1 year. Conclusion: SUSO is unlikely to be cost effective compared with SOSU unless GDP per capita reaches $ 13700 on a 5-year time horizon. However, SUSO is associated with significant advantages in clinical outcomes. In terms of costs, other drugs other than sorafenib should be considered as alternatives in second line therapy if sunitinib failed in the first line therapy.